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GSA Bulletin; May 2000; v. 112; no. 5; p. 693-707; DOI: 10.1130/0016-7606(2000)112<693:APFOTE>2.0.CO;2
© 2000 Geological Society of America
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Active parasitic folds on the Elysian Park anticline: Implications for seismic hazard in central Los Angeles, California

Michael Oskin*,1, Kerry Sieh1, Thomas Rockwell2, Grant Miller3, Paul Guptill4, Matthew Curtis5, Steve McArdle6 and Paul Elliot6

1 Seismological Laboratory 252-21, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California 91125, USA
2 Department of Geological Sciences, San Diego State University, San Diego, California 92182, USA
3 Advanced Earth Sciences, Incorporated, 13700 Alton Parkway, Suite 163, Irvine, California 92618, USA
4 GeoSyntec, 2100 Main Street, Suite 150, Huntington Beach, California 92648, USA
5 Earth Technology Corporation, 100 West Broadway, Long Beach, California 90802, USA
6 Law/Crandall, Incorporated, 200 Citadel Drive, Los Angeles, California 90040, USA

We characterize the seismic hazard of the Elysian Park fault, a blind reverse fault beneath central Los Angeles, by analysis of the Elysian Park anticline, which overlies it. New shallow-subsurface geotechnical data, combined with other surficial stratigraphy and geomorphology, reveal that the Elysian Park anticline is an active 20-km-long structure. From the style and rates of deformation of parasitic folds on the southern limb of the anticline, we estimate a contraction rate of 0.6–1.1 mm/yr. This rate provides a basis for estimating a rate of contraction of the entire Elysian Park anticline, which in turn allows us to estimate a 0.8–2.2 mm/yr time-averaged rate of slip on the underlying fault. At this rate of slip, rupture of the Elysian Park fault could produce a nominal Mw 6.2 to 6.7 earthquake every 500 to 1300 yr, on average. Although this Elysian Park earthquake would recur infrequently, its size and recurrence interval may be similar to those estimated for the sources of the destructive 1971 San Fernando and 1994 Northridge earthquakes.

Key Words: active faults • fluvial sedimentation • folds • geologic hazards • geomorphology • Los Angeles basin




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